The Real Crisis: Smoking's Toll Amid Vaping's Backlash

Reflecting on the Past Year

Let’s rewind and think about the past year.

When was the last time you saw a hard-hitting ad about the dangers of smoking? Or a headline calling out cigarettes for the health crisis they cause?

Meanwhile, we’ve seen articles where parents are literally telling their kids to ditch vaping... and go back to smoking. Not a peep of protest from smoking cessation experts. But hey, when it comes to vaping? That’s a whole other story.

Over the past year, we’ve seen:

• A flood of negative headlines about vaping

• Misinformation slipping into policymaking

• Government crackdowns that could tank vaping rates

• Millions pumped into anti-vaping campaigns

• Whispers (loud ones) that Big Tobacco is influencing vaping laws

Now, let’s be real: vaping isn’t harmless. It's addictive, and yes, there are risks. But here’s the kicker—it’s estimated to be 20 times less harmful than smoking, with just 0.5% of the lifetime cancer risk. That’s exactly why the UK’s original “Smoke Free by 2030” goal included vaping as a major part of the plan.

So if vaping’s being pushed out... what’s the plan for the millions of people still smoking?

The Current State of Smoking

When vaping gained popularity, smoking rates didn’t just dip—they plummeted. In 2011, as vaping started picking up steam, 20.2% of UK adults were smokers. By 2023, that figure had dropped to just over 12%.² That’s a massive win for public health. But let’s not kid ourselves—over 6 million people in the UK still smoke every single day.

And here’s the ugly truth: for long-term smokers, studies estimate that 1 in 3 to 1 in 2 will die early because of it. That’s 2 to 3 million preventable deaths. Gone too soon, just because of cigarettes. Now here’s the hopeful bit: if you stop smoking before age 35, your body can gradually repair most of the damage. It’s like hitting the reset button.

A lot of people do manage to quit before then—but once you hit 40, the odds start dropping fast. That’s why the government’s plan to phase out smoking by slowly increasing the legal age might sound bold… but in reality? It’ll take decades to have a meaningful impact. The people who need help now—they’re not the ones this policy is going to save.

The Problem with Demonising Vaping

Here’s the reality: vaping has helped drive down smoking rates. It’s not a theory—it’s a fact.

According to the UK government, in just one year, around 50,000 people quit smoking thanks to vaping. And the success rates? They’re impressive—as high as 59.7%, and up to 75% when vaping is paired with other quit strategies. Even Action on Smoking and Health (ASH) backs this up: more than half of ex-smokers say they used vaping to quit.

And for a lot of them, vaping isn’t the end of the journey—it’s a stepping stone to quitting nicotine altogether. In fact, one-third of switchers are now nicotine-free.³ But there’s another angle no one’s talking about: the people who might’ve picked up smoking, but chose vaping instead. They didn’t become smokers—they chose something far less addictive and drastically less harmful.

We don’t have hard numbers on how many people fall into that group. Why? Because this kind of research doesn’t get the funding. It’s hard to study the benefits of vaping when everyone’s lining up to tear it down. Still, just because something isn’t measured doesn’t mean it doesn’t matter. And let’s be real—if you’re a risk-taker looking for a buzz, the odds are high you’d have lit a cigarette in the past. Now? You’re more likely to try a vape instead. And that could be saving lives.

Why Aren’t More Smokers Trying Vaping?

Despite the overwhelming evidence of the relative safety of vaping, public perception is misaligned with the actual science. Studies have shown that more than half of smokers believe vaping is as harmful—or even more harmful—than smoking. Among those who’ve never vaped, this belief is even stronger, with 60% to 70% of individuals feeling that vaping is just as dangerous as smoking.

This misinformation is preventing smokers from making the switch to a less harmful alternative. When smokers believe vaping is just as harmful as smoking, it’s understandable that they wouldn’t consider it as a viable option.

This fear, fueled by media hysteria and misinformation, is keeping many people from taking the step to quit smoking for good.

It’s Going to Get Worse

Public fear around vaping is climbing every year—and it’s not slowing down. With the government launching attack after attack, the future isn’t just uncertain for vaping… it’s under siege.

Here’s just a taste of what’s either already rolling out or actively being floated:

• A full ban on disposable vapes

• Giving ministers sweeping powers to ban flavours

• Plain packaging, as if e-liquid bottles are cigarette cartons

• Display bans in shops, hiding products that help people quit

• Potential restrictions on where vaping is allowed

• A massive tax on e-liquid, based on the absolutely false idea that a 10ml bottle equals 100 cigarettes

• A proposed tax stamp system—which would jack up production costs and force many small manufacturers to close, leaving Big Tobacco laughing and consumers with fewer options

• Even outright claims in Parliament that vaping doesn’t help people quit smoking (despite mountains of evidence saying otherwise)

Oh—and let’s not forget the relentless stream of misinformation that’s made its way into the highest levels of government.

One glaring example? A doctor recently told a parliamentary committee that vaping causes popcorn lung—a myth that’s been publicly debunked for years by everyone from Public Health England to the NHS.⁶ ⁷ Yet here we are.

Misinformation is winning the PR war. And smokers? They’re the ones who’ll pay the price.

What’s Going to Happen to Smoking Rates?

Honestly? It’s anyone’s guess right now. With 2025 data still MIA, we can’t say for sure where smoking rates are headed. But here’s the uncomfortable truth: if smokers were consistently given the facts about how much less harmful vaping is compared to smoking, we’d probably be in a much better place.

Still, there are some warning signs—and they’re not subtle. At the last E-Cigarette Summit, Professor Jamie Brown revealed a big spike in non-daily smoking in the UK. Factor that in, and the real smoking rate isn’t the tidy 12% we’re often shown—it jumps to 16.5%. That’s not progress. That’s backsliding.

Jamie didn’t mince words:

“Harmful misconceptions about vaping are holding people back. We must prioritise targeted campaigns to dispel myths and encourage full transitions away from smoking… The ‘last mile’ of tobacco control is proving more complex than we anticipated.” And if you think it can’t get worse, think again.

Dr Jasmine Khouja from the University of Bristol dropped this bombshell: If flavour restrictions are brought in, we could see…

• 381,102 current vapers relapse into smoking

• 460,200 smokers never make the switch to vaping

• And a bunch of young vapers turn to dangerous black-market products

Translation? We’d be lighting the match on a full-blown public health disaster.

Final Thoughts

Yes—youth vaping is a valid concern, and politicians are right to pay attention. But here’s the part that’s getting lost in the noise: smoking is still killing millions, and we desperately need a smarter, more balanced approach.

It’s not about choosing between protecting kids or helping adults quit smoking. We can—and must—do both.

Want to curb youth vaping? Great. Then crack down on the real problem: illegal vapes and shady retailers who don’t care about age limits. That alone could move the needle without sabotaging adult smokers who are trying to make the switch to a far less harmful alternative. Because let’s not kid ourselves—vaping is not the enemy. Smoking is.

In fact, the math makes it painfully clear: We would need 20 vapers to quit just to offset the harm of one smoker going back to cigarettes or never switching in the first place.

This graph by Clive Bates drives it home:

If smoking is 20 times as dangerous as vaping, you can’t just say, “Well, we stopped some vaping, but a few more people kept smoking.” The net harm is massive. And a few hard truths we can’t ignore: Big Tobacco is in the room. That’s not speculation—it’s in policy docs. For example, the Welsh Government's report on the Tobacco and Vapes Bill directly cites Philip Morris Ltd, lobbying to preserve flavours like mint and tobacco, with tighter controls on all others. (Source: Welsh Parliament Health & Social Care Committee, Feb 2025, Para 82, Pg 20)

Some MPs are meeting with tobacco lobbyists, sometimes without even realizing who they’re dealing with.

The public is being misled. A 2025 study from leading researchers (Cox, Jackson, Brown, Kale & Shahab) sums it up perfectly:

“A fear of the unknown harms is keeping people smoking. Helping people who smoke make fully informed choices should be a policy priority as the UK works toward its Smokefree 2030 goal.”
— Nicotine & Tobacco Research, 2025 So here’s the bottom line:

If we let bad headlines, misinformation, and political panic undo the work of harm reduction, millions will pay the price with their lives. We have a shot at a smokefree future—but only if we get the science right, block the lobbyists, and stop demonizing the very tools that are helping smokers quit.

Sources & References:

1. ASH - Action on Smoking and Health – Electronic Cigarettes (2021)

2. UK Parliament Research Briefing - Statistics on Smoking (2023)

3. ASH - Use of Vapes Among Adults in Great Britain (2024)

4. Hansard Commons – Tobacco and Vapes Bill (2025)

5. Letter to MPs on Vaping and Smoking Cessation – IBVTA (2025)

6. Public Health England – Clearing Up Myths Around E-Cigarettes (2018)

7. NHS – Vaping Myths vs Facts

8. Main article: E-Cigarette Direct – The Vaping Panic Is Costing Lives (2025)